In recent weeks, courts have handed the GOP two massive wins in the gerrymandering war launched by President Donald Trump. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
First, the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act, spurring a rush among Southern states to wipe out Democratic-held majority-Black seats that had been required by the landmark law. Then, Virginia\u2019s high court nullified a referendum in which voters had approved a Democratic-backed map that would have given the party four additional seats to counter Republican gains elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The twin rulings have given the GOP a clear, unearned edge in this fall\u2019s midterms<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n But if Democrats are willing to play political hardball, that edge could be neutered by 2028. In fact, by doing their own partisan redraws in big blue states like New York, New Jersey, and Illinois \u2014 and trying again in the Old Dominion \u2014 the party could even potentially emerge from this scorched-earth battle with anywhere between a six- and thirteen-seat advantage over Republicans, according to a Democracy Docket analysis.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n It won\u2019t be easy. In several states, they\u2019ll need to get voters to amend state constitutions to bypass redistricting commissions, via lengthy and costly processes that are far from guaranteed to succeed \u2014 and they\u2019ll need to win commanding majorities in a few state houses before they can even try. In some cases, they may also need to dilute minority voting power, which will risk angering perhaps its most important voting bloc.\u00a0\u00a0And the GOP will likely keep redrawing wherever it can (but probably not South Carolina<\/a>, where Republican lawmakers decided splitting the lone district held by Democrats there too risky).<\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s also worth noting the GOP likely won\u2019t realize all the gains this fall that its gerrymanders were intended to secure. With Trump\u2019s approval ratings at historic lows \u2014 a recent Pew Research Center survey<\/a> found just 34% of Americans supported Trump \u2014 it\u2019s expected to be a strong Democratic year. Pollster G. Elliot Morris estimates<\/a> that, in reality, Republicans will net only six seats thanks to the redraws. So, if Democratic states do redraw maps after this year\u2019s election, expect the baseline figures and pickup totals to change.<\/p>\n\n\n Join 350,000 readers who rely on our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest in voting, elections and democracy.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\tGet updates straight to your inbox \u2014 for free\t\t\t\t<\/h2>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t